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“Håp eller katastrofe” – en skoleturne for videregående- og ungdomsskole
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Climate change

Is it possible to limit global warming to 1,5 C over pre-industrial time?

Posted on May 13, 2021May 13, 2021 by Klima 2020

Interview with Beril Sirmacek.

“Håp eller katastrofe” – en skoleturne for videregående- og ungdomsskole

Sigbjørn Mostue og Svein Tveitdal turnerer Skole-Norge. Et møte mellom litteratur og vitenskap om klimaendringer, naturtap og jordas framtid.

Klima2020

Klima2020 was established by Svein Tveitdal in 2008 and work with climate consulting and communication and Green Business development.

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Status 2121 days after the Paris agreement:

Some reason for optimism

The Paris Climate Agreement (2015) aims to hold the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial (1880) levels and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. Five years later we have almost the same emissions as in 2015 even if COVID-19 might result in a reduction in 2020 on 6-7 %. But unfortunately the pandemic stimulus packages continues to damage the environment.

Current pledges made by signatories to the Paris agreement is insufficient and may result in a warming of 2,7-3,6°C by the end of the century. But in 2020 most countries lag behind the Paris pledges they made 5 years ago. We are already experiencing a warming on 1,2°C, the 1,5°C target is out of reach, and with the current trend we might end up with 5°C warming and climate catastrophe.

The good news is that governments now seem to wake up. At the next COP in Glasgow this year it is expected that 100 countries, representing two thirds of both global emissons and economy will pledge climate neutrality by 2050 (China 2060). This is not enough to limit warming to 2°C but gives reason for some optimism. The figure below show the tremendous challenge ahead to stay below 2°C

The Paris Climate Agreement represent major threats and opportunities for the business sector. To achieve the goals, 75-80% of the world's known resources of coal, oil and gas must remain in the ground. If we burn it all, the planet will crater. It looks like we can have a healthy balance sheet in big oil and coal, or a relatively healthy planet – but we cannot have both. But the end of the fossil area might be more than compensated by the growth of the low emission society. IRENA, the International Renewable Energy Agency, predicts there will be 24 million jobs in clean energy by 2030 from 8,1 million in 2015, driven in large measure by efforts to meet carbon reduction targets agreed in Paris.

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